Technical Archives - CFRA Research https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/category/technical/ Independent Financial Intelligence and Innovation Tue, 24 Mar 2026 12:31:36 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.cfraresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/cropped-CFRA_favicon_512px-1-32x32.png Technical Archives - CFRA Research https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/category/technical/ 32 32 Monitoring Small-Cap Signposts https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/monitoring-small-cap-signposts/ Thu, 05 Feb 2026 15:19:27 +0000 https://www.cfraresearch.com/?p=11841 The post Monitoring Small-Cap Signposts appeared first on CFRA Research.

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Key Takeaways

After years of underperformance, in August of 2025, small-cap technical indicators flashed inflection signals that weren’t seen since the 2021 rally.

At the time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested rate cuts were coming, implying a positive change and/or rotation into small-cap stocks could be on the horizon. This Special Report highlighted key technical signposts for why small caps likely deserved consideration, and at what point a more aggressive stance was warranted.

Market Context

The dichotomy between large- and small-cap performance persisted into the second half of 2025. Small-caps trailed large-caps by nearly 8 percentage points year-to-date (YTD) through August 25, 2025, but technical indicators suggested this gap was closing.

  • S&P 500 Index (large-caps): +9.48% YTD as of August 2025
  • S&P 600 Small-Cap Index: +1.55% YTD as of August 2025

Small-cap breadth (lower chart) held near all-time highs, while price (upper chart) lagged, a pattern historically associated with sustained advances.

Small-cap underperformance was largely attributable to the higher interest rate environment, which makes smaller companies’ balance sheets less attractive, as they must borrow more frequently to grow and face less favorable debt terms than large, established companies.

Key Technical Indicators

    1. Market Breadth: The Advance-Decline Line eclipsed its June 2021 former all-time high in October 2025 and has continued higher since then.
    2. Demand Intensity: The percentage of smaller stocks contributing to index gains rose significantly. In addition, internal weakness as measured by the Percent of Small- and Mid-Caps 20% or More Below 52-Week Highs contracted. This means that Demand for the weakest stocks expanded, indicating that all strength levels of smaller stocks were engaged in the rally, with a healthy risk appetite apparent.
    3. Relative Strength: Broke short-term downtrend vs. the S&P 500.

The full report includes detailed charts showing historical precedents from 2021 and 2023, plus specific-sector Power Rating analysis.

Investment Implications

  • Gradually build small-cap positions while remaining selective
  • Monitor for breakouts to new highs in price, accompanied by strong technical indicators
  • Focus on the five heaviest-weighted sectors (see below)
  • Wait for clear confirmation of sustained breakouts before becoming more aggressive

The technical setup for small-caps is the most constructive it’s been in over a year. While confirmation through breakouts is still needed, the risk/reward for gradually building positions in the five key sectors (Financials, Industrials, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care) is becoming increasingly attractive.

Lowry Research has provided institutional-grade technical analysis since 1938, tracking market breadth and demand indicators through multiple market cycles.

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Outlook 2026: Position Your Portfolio for What’s Next https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/outlook-2026-position-your-portfolio-for-whats-next/ Thu, 20 Nov 2025 19:55:38 +0000 https://www.cfraresearch.com/?p=11655 The post Outlook 2026: Position Your Portfolio for What’s Next appeared first on CFRA Research.

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As 2025 draws to a close, investors face evolving interest rate trends, resilient earnings, persistent inflation, and rapid technological change.

In this session, CFRA’s top analysts shared actionable insights to help position your portfolio for the opportunities and risks of 2026.

Expert Panel:

  • Stewart Glickman, CFA (moderator) – Director of Research
  • Sam Stovall, CFP – Chief Investment Strategist
  • Michael Kahn, CMT – SVP, Senior Market Analyst

Our analysts reflected on the significant economic shifts in 2025, including shifting monetary policy expectations, uneven global growth, persistent inflation dynamics, and evolving sector performance patterns. They examined how these developments are shaping market structure, trend formation, valuation regimes, and risks as we move into 2026.

We discussed:

  • Market Structure –Cross-asset trend developments observed in 2025 and their potential implications for 2026
  • Market Timing Signals– Technical patterns and indicators that could signal changes in market momentum and leadership
  • Winning Sectors for 2026 – Fundamental considerations shaping sector performance, including earnings trends and valuation dynamics
  • Global Risk Assessment – Macro forces such as global economic conditions, policy developments, and geopolitical factors

Download the slide deck here.

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Stock Market at All-Time Highs: Should Investors Brace for a Pullback? https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/stock-market-at-all-time-highs/ Thu, 24 Jul 2025 20:20:35 +0000 https://www.cfraresearch.com/?p=10842 The post Stock Market at All-Time Highs: Should Investors Brace for a Pullback? appeared first on CFRA Research.

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Equity markets are once again setting all-time highs—prompting both optimism and concern among investors. With valuations stretched and potential volatility from trade policy uncertainty, investors face growing questions about whether this rally has room to run or if a sharp near-term pullback is on the horizon.

During this webinar CFRA’s esteemed analysts, Paul Beland, CFA, Head of Global Research-Wealth Management, Sam Stovall, CFP, Chief Investment Strategist, and Drew Wells, CMT, Technical Analyst, combined fundamental and technical research to assess the current market environment.

They also examined the key drivers behind the recent market strength, identified potential warning signs from market internals and macro indicators, and discussed strategies to help advisors navigate elevated valuations and risks associated with volatility.

During the session, we discussed:

  • Fundamental drivers behind recent stock performance
  • Macro and sector-level risk factors to monitor
  • Technical signals that may indicate market exhaustion or continued strength
  • How investors can construct risk management frameworks to trim positions, rebalance, and seek defensive opportunities without early market exits.

Watch the replay

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Navigating Market Volatility: What’s Ahead for the Rest of 2025? https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/navigating-market-volatility-whats-ahead-for-the-rest-of-2025/ Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:52:19 +0000 https://www.cfraresearch.com/?p=10111 The post Navigating Market Volatility: What’s Ahead for the Rest of 2025? appeared first on CFRA Research.

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The markets have spoken—are you listening? We expect 2025 to continue to be a year of heightened market volatility. With geopolitical uncertainty clouding economic forecasts, how should you position yourself moving forward?

During this session we discussed CFRA’s fundamental outlook for 2025 and 2026 and what Lowry’s technical indicators tell us about what it all means for the remainder of the year.

CFRA Head of Global Research—Wealth Management Paul Beland, CFA, CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, CFP, and Lowry Research Senior Vice President Michael Kahn, CMT, highlighted key market trends, identified critical indicators and emerging patterns, and provided insights that could influence future market movements.

During this session, we:

  • Reviewed CFRA’s Fundamental Market Outlook
  • Reviewed Lowry’s Current Technical Market Outlook
  • Top Sectors, Stocks, and ETFs
  • Q&A

Speakers

Paul Beland, CFA
Moderator, Global Head of Research - Wealth Management
Paul Beland, who holds a CFA designation, is currently serving as the Global Head of Research - Wealth Management at CFRA. Before joining CFRA in 2017, he worked as a sell-side equity research analyst for over ten years with Citigroup and Lazard Capital Markets. During his tenure, he covered various sectors, including Accounting and Valuation, Education Services, and Media. Paul served as a member of the Global Regulatory Board of RICS from 2015 to 2020. He completed his Bachelor of Arts in Economics with honors and distinction from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Sam Stovall, CFP
Chief Investment Strategist
Sam is Chief Investment Strategist. Sam Stovall is an analyst, publisher, and communicator of CFRA’s outlooks for the economy, market, and sectors. He is the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street and The S&P Guide to Sector Investing. He also writes weekly “Sector Watch” and “Investment Policy” reports on CFRA’s MarketScope Advisor platform and maintains the Industry Momentum and Seasonal Rotation portfolios. His work is also found in CFRA’s flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook.
Michael Kahn, CMT
SVP, Sr. Market Analyst
Michael Kahn, CMT, is an SVP, Sr. Market Analyst at Lowry Research, a CFRA business with over 30 years of professional experience as an analyst, writer, educator, and product manager. He is active in the CMT Association as a former member of the Board of Directors, editor of the association newsletter, and chair or member of several committees. Mr. Kahn wrote a twice-weekly column on Technical Analysis for Barron's and regular articles for MarketWatch, Kiplinger, and many others. Mr. Kahn researched and edited his own daily market letter and contributed to a weekly options webinar with Ally Invest. Before that, he was Chief Market Technician at BridgeNews.

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Tariffs and Market Trends Lowry Indicators Reveal Limited Long-Term Impact https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/tariffs-and-market-trends-lowry-indicators-reveal-limited-long-term-impact/ Tue, 01 Apr 2025 13:30:55 +0000 https://www.cfraresearch.com/?p=10061 The post Tariffs and Market Trends Lowry Indicators Reveal Limited Long-Term Impact appeared first on CFRA Research.

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Summary

Tariffs have returned to the headlines in 2025, reviving concerns about market disruption and triggering sharp pullbacks. But does history suggest that investors should be worried? In this Lowry Special Report, we look beyond the headlines to what truly matters — the market’s internal strength.

Using proprietary Lowry indicators, this report evaluates the effects of past tariff battles — from the 2002 steel tariffs to the ongoing 2025 tariff escalation — and finds that while short-term volatility is common, long-term trends often remain intact. Investors who relied on the Lowry body of evidence were able to ride out turbulence without derailing long-term positioning.

This timely research offers critical context for today’s market participants. You’ll gain actionable insights into how demand and supply dynamics, not news cycles, have historically dictated market direction. Plus, get a first look at Lowry’s forthcoming Market Health Rating system, designed to help quantify trend strength with greater clarity.

This report is a valuable resource for institutional investors, portfolio managers, and anyone seeking a disciplined, technically grounded perspective during uncertain times.

What You’ll Learn

In this exclusive research report, you will gain insights into:

  • How major tariff announcements from 2002, 2014, 2018, and 2025 affected market trends and investor sentiment
  • Why Lowry’s technical indicators consistently pointed to sustained trends, despite short-term volatility
  • The role of Buying Power, Selling Pressure, breadth, and momentum indicators during past tariff events
  • Early insights into Lowry’s evolving market health rating system
  • Why disciplined, evidence-based trend analysis can reduce investment anxiety during policy-driven volatility

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Lowry Insights: Market Consolidation and Positive Outlook https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/market-consolidation-and-positive-outlook/ Fri, 07 Feb 2025 16:30:52 +0000 https://www.cfraresearch.com/?p=9571 The post Lowry Insights: Market Consolidation and Positive Outlook appeared first on CFRA Research.

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While the recent news regarding tariffs and potential trade wars has led to an increase in near-term volatility, Lowry’s key gauges of market health suggest the market is undergoing a period of consolidation, rather than a major market top.

During this webinar we discussed the recent market consolidation and how our indicators continue to favor a positive outlook, where we see opportunity, and what we will need to observe to suggest a more cautious approach. CFRA Head of Global Research—Wealth Management Paul Beland, CFA, Lowry Research Senior Vice President Michael Kahn, CMT, and Market Analyst Michael Zuber, CMT, highlighted key market trends, identified critical indicators, emerging patterns, and provided insights that could influence future market movements.

During the session, we reviewed:

  • Lowry’s Current Market Outlook
  • Potential Signs that might Raise the Caution Level
  • Sectors Likely to Outperform and Underperform
  • Top Stocks and ETFs (in Lowry’s Most-Favored Sectors)
  • Q&A

Speakers

Paul Beland, CFA
Moderator, Global Head of Research - Wealth Management
Paul Beland, who holds a CFA designation, is currently serving as the Global Head of Research - Wealth Management at CFRA. Before joining CFRA in 2017, he worked as a sell-side equity research analyst for over ten years with Citigroup and Lazard Capital Markets. During his tenure, he covered various sectors, including Accounting and Valuation, Education Services, and Media. Paul served as a member of the Global Regulatory Board of RICS from 2015 to 2020. He completed his Bachelor of Arts in Economics with honors and distinction from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Michael Kahn, CMT
SVP, Sr. Market Analyst
Michael Kahn, CMT, is an SVP, Sr. Market Analyst at Lowry Research, a CFRA business with over 30 years of professional experience as an analyst, writer, educator, and product manager. He is active in the CMT Association as a former member of the Board of Directors, editor of the association newsletter, and chair or member of several committees. Mr. Kahn wrote a twice-weekly column on Technical Analysis for Barron's and regular articles for MarketWatch, Kiplinger, and many others. Mr. Kahn researched and edited his own daily market letter and contributed to a weekly options webinar with Ally Invest. Before that, he was Chief Market Technician at BridgeNews.
Michael Zuber, CMT
Market Analyst
Michael Zuber, CMT, is a Market Analyst with Lowry Research. Michael’s prior experience dealt in both equity trading and sales at Charles Schwab. As a Broker, he helped self-directed clients with trading strategies, asset allocation, online research tools, and the navigation of trading platforms. While working in Sales, he helped prospective clients with understanding products, managed account solutions, opening new accounts, as well as with account transfers. Michael is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) charter holder as of 2017 and is currently working towards earning his Masters of Business Administration (MBA) from Ashland University.

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Fusion Forecasting: Leveraging Proprietary Fundamental & Technical Research https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/fusion-forecasting/ Mon, 20 May 2024 13:18:11 +0000 https://www.cfraresearch.com/?p=6119 The post Fusion Forecasting: Leveraging Proprietary Fundamental & Technical Research appeared first on CFRA Research.

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There is an old saying on Wall Street related to technical and fundamental analysis:
Fundamentals tell you what, and technicals tell you when and how far.

During this webinar CFRA Fundamental and Technical Analysts discussed a groundbreaking methodology merging fundamental and technical analysis for portfolio success.

During the session, they explored how this approach can optimize timing and investment depth, delivering consistent market outperformance and reduced volatility. Sam and Vincent highlighted insights on constructing high-performing portfolios by examining the S&P 1500, CFRA STARS, and CFRA STARS with the Lowry Power Rating Relative Strength overlay. Our experts also analyzed the market-beating results across multiple timeframes and highlighted the enhanced annual gains and reduced volatility associated with Fusion Forecasting-guided portfolios.

Watch the replay

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