The UK pharmaceutical landscape is entering a period of profound change as political and trade pressures mount. This exclusive CFRA Research report, based on an expert conference call, dives deep into the potential ramifications of U.S.-UK trade deals, revisions to the UK’s VPAG rebate system, and broader NHS reforms on drug pricing, reimbursement, and access.

Traditionally viewed as a low-margin market, the UK may soon offer new opportunities for global pharmaceutical firms as the government seeks to appease the U.S. by loosening rebate terms and expanding drug budgets. These moves come in response to the May 12, 2025 Executive Order aimed at reducing foreign free-riding on U.S. pharmaceutical innovation.

Companies such as Amgen, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and Roche may see upside if the UK’s 2024 Voluntary Scheme for Branded Medicines (VPAG) is revised. With the Department of Health and Social Care preparing a new spending review and 10-year NHS plan, questions remain about how long-term reimbursement models, access to generics, and biosimilar pricing will evolve.

This policy shift also ties into broader economic ambitions under the UK’s Economic Prosperity Deal with the U.S., and is reinforced by the government’s push to remain a global hub for life sciences innovation.

Authors:

Laura Hobbs, Senior Vice President Health Care Policy

Monet Stanford, Senior Vice President, Healthcare Policy

What You Will Learn

• How VPAG rebate renegotiations may affect branded drug revenue
• Why U.S. tariffs and executive orders are influencing UK drug policy
• Strategic implications for generics, biosimilars, and reimbursement
• Which global pharma companies stand to benefit from policy tailwinds
• The impact of the upcoming NHS 10-year plan and DHSC spending review

Stay ahead of UK drug pricing reforms and trade-driven policy shifts. Download our full Conference Call Takeaways and Industry Outlook.

The pharmaceutical sector is at a critical inflection point. CFRA’s latest outlook highlights mounting policy risks, rising geopolitical tensions, and shifting regulatory dynamics that are placing pressure on valuations—just as blockbuster drugs approach major patent cliffs. At the same time, innovation remains alive through AI-driven drug discovery and targeted M&A strategies.

In this in-depth research presentation led by Sel Hardy, CFRA’s Senior Vice President of Equity Research, we examine key forces shaping the future of biopharma—from the Inflation Reduction Act and MFN pricing reforms to the Section 232 tariff investigation that could significantly impact supply chains.

Preview highlights from the full video below, then access the complete research deck and video to uncover CFRA’s top biopharma picks and what may lie ahead for investors.

What Topics Are Covered:

• Why CFRA downgraded the 12-month outlook for pharmaceuticals to Negative
• The financial and strategic impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on drug pricing
• Implications of the Section 232 Tariff Investigation on U.S. pharmaceutical supply chains
• How M&A activity is driving portfolio growth amidst looming patent expirations
• The transformative role of artificial intelligence in drug discovery
• Which companies CFRA sees as best positioned for long-term success

Unlock the full slide deck and access the complete 13-minute expert video to gain CFRA’s latest biopharma sector insights and strategic picks for 2025.

CFRA’s Washington Analysis Healthcare team breaks down why 2025 may mark the effective dissolution of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as we know it. From sweeping funding cuts in Medicaid, enrollment caps, key Supreme Court rulings and a shifting regulatory environment, Marketplace insurers like Centene (CNC), Molina (MOH), Oscar Health (OSCR) and UnitedHealth (UNH) face significant and often underappreciated headwinds.

While the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits loom at the end of the year, the near term legislative actions embedded within the “One Big Beautiful Bill” could further destabilize the ACA Marketplace. Add to that the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Kennedy v. Braidwood Management, and the risk of increased cost burdens and insurer exits grows.

But there’s another side to the story. As traditional ACA frameworks come under pressure, Congress is making room for alternatives. Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements (ICHRAs)—soon to be rebranded as CHOICE arrangements—which offer tax incentives to individuals and small business to expand coverage are receiving new support in proposed legislation. However, the outcome remains uncertain. Should Congress move forward with this reforms, the WA Healthcare Team expects this could signal strong tailwinds for HealthEquity (HQY), Optum Bank (UNH), Benefitfocus (BNFT), HQY, GoHealth (GOCO) and eHealth (EHTH).

This research report provides a comprehensive look at both the risks and opportunities reshaping U.S. health insurance policy in 2025.

Authors:

Tatiana Brown Johnson, Senior Vice President, Policy Analyst
Monet Stanford, Senior Vice President, Healthcare Policy

What You Will Learn

• Why insurers may face margin pressure and exits from the ACA Marketplace
• How the “One Big Beautiful Bill” reshapes Medicaid and premium tax credits
• The Supreme Court case that could upend cost-free preventive coverage
• Tailwinds for HSAs and CHOICE arrangements as new coverage models gain traction
• Implications for companies like HealthEquity, GoHealth, and Optum Bank

Download the complete analysis to understand how 2025 policy changes could transform the healthcare coverage landscape and what’s next for insurers and alternative providers.

UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) stock has fallen over 50% from its 2024 high following reports of a Department of Justice criminal investigation into Medicare Advantage billing fraud. CFRA Research downgraded its 12-month outlook to Sell, citing mounting regulatory risks, margin compression, and lowered EPS guidance.

This in-depth equity research report from CFRA Senior Equity Analyst Paige Meyer breaks down the events driving this historic downturn—and what institutional investors should watch next.

Whether you’re a wealth manager, portfolio strategist, or institutional allocator, this report will give you actionable insight into the headwinds UNH faces in 2025, including:

• Heightened Medicare Advantage utilization
• Medicaid reimbursement risk
• DOJ criminal and civil probes
• Market share and margin erosion across Optum

Stay informed with an independent, comprehensive breakdown of UNH’s fundamentals, valuation, and future scenarios.

What Is Included In This Report

• Why CFRA believes $UNH is a Sell despite its historical strength
• Key risks from the DOJ’s criminal investigation into Medicare Advantage billing
• How EPS estimates for 2025 were revised downward and what it signals
• Impact of medical cost inflation and care activity on margins
• Why CFRA’s 12-month price target was slashed to $216—well below current trading levels
• Comparative peer analysis and sub-industry outlook for managed care firms

Get instant access to CFRA’s latest research on UnitedHealth Group and find out why institutional analysts are hitting the brakes.

Following the widely reported failures of Steward-owned hospitals in Massachusetts and subsequent bankruptcy and state intervention, it is not surprising that Massachusetts passed legislation to regulate healthcare Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). At Washington Analysis, a CFRA business, we are tracking state laws that we believe are likely to gain momentum in 2026 and beyond. We theorize that HC REIT legislation adoption will follow similar pathways that state legislatures implemented to address to increase insight into pharmacy benefit manager (PBMs) and prohibit Surprise Medical Bills.

As state legislatures ramp up oversight of hospital and nursing home ownership, major healthcare REITs face intensifying regulatory risk. This exclusive Washington Analysis report outlines the legislation gaining traction across 20+ states and assesses the potential impact on key players, including CareTrust, Medical Properties Trust, Omega Healthcare, Sabra Health, and Welltower.

What You’ll Learn

• Which states are advancing legislation targeting HC REIT ownership
• Why Connecticut’s 2026 outlook poses the greatest threat
• Implications for mergers, acquisitions, and disclosure rules
• Lessons from the pharmacy benefit manager and surprise billing regulatory playbooks
• Companies most exposed to upcoming oversight

Stay ahead of state legislative risks impacting healthcare REITs in 2026.

Authors of this piece:

Laura Hobbs, SVP-Healthcare
Ryan Visnovec, Senior Research Associate

Watch the replay

Can the FDA pursue more aggressive food regulations under a deregulatory administration?

In this call recap, CFRA’s Washington Analysis team breaks down what’s really happening behind the scenes as the Trump administration pushes forward with its “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) food policy agenda. A featured regulatory attorney with deep FDA experience outlines what investors and industry watchers need to know, from proposed front-of-package labeling to the FDA’s early-stage efforts at post-market ingredient reviews.

However, implementing this vision comes with serious challenges—like internal staffing cuts, budget constraints, and unclear science. These roadblocks could delay or derail key food policy initiatives unless the administration reallocates funding or changes course.

With potential implications for consumer brands like Conagra, PepsiCo, and General Mills, as well as fast-food giants like McDonald’s and Yum! Brands, this analysis offers critical insights at a time of regulatory uncertainty.

What You Will Learn

• The top regulatory priorities likely to shape FDA action under the MAHA agenda
• Challenges FDA faces due to staffing shortages and budget contradictions
• How upcoming front-of-package labeling rules and ingredient reviews may unfold
• Implications for major food manufacturers and restaurant chains
• The role (and limits) of scientific evidence in shaping future food regulation
• A reality check on RFK’s claims about food ingredient bans in Europe
• How deregulation efforts could collide with MAHA’s goals

Download the full takeaways to stay informed and ahead of regulatory risk.

Policy Tailwinds for Pharmacies Amid Ongoing Reimbursement Challenges

Retail pharmacy chains have long since navigated an uncertain reimbursement landscape that has driven a slew of pharmacy closures in 2025. Now, the policy environment is finally starting to tilt in their favor.

In this special research report, Washington Analysis—a CFRA business—shares insights from a recent expert-led conference call with a leading regulatory expert discussing the impact of PBM reform, shifting drug pricing benchmarks, and the evolving implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Key takeaways suggest a moderate but meaningful tailwind for CVS, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), and RiteAid. Moves toward National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (NADAC)-based reimbursement, more predictable fee adjudication and mandatory centralized procurement facilitators all represent potential positives recently finalized through legislative and regulatory means. Meanwhile, state-level prescription drug affordability boards (PDABs) and pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) contracting still present reimbursement and liquidity risks.

Chain drugstores, facing years of margin compression and store closures, may benefit from increased regulatory clarity—particularly as PBMs are stunted through legislative reform in their ability steer volume and shrink margins. But the real question remains: Will reforms gain traction in a crowded policy year?

What You Will Learn

• Why proposed PBM reform could stabilize reimbursement and reduce pharmacy closures
• How NADAC pricing and IRA “smoothing” provisions are reshaping pharmacy cash flow expectations
• Why large pharmacy chains may benefit while independent pharmacies remain at risk
• The impact of new CMS rules including automatic enrollment in the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan at the point of sale
• How state-level PDAB proposals could pose reimbursement risks in key markets

This report breaks down how national and state-level policy shifts could shape the future of the pharmacy sector and which players are best positioned to weather or win from these developments.

Report Authors Include:

• Monet Stanford, PharmD, Senior Vice Present, Healthcare Policy
• Laura Hobbs, Senior Vice Present, Healthcare Policy
• Tatiana Johnson, Senior Vice Present, Healthcare Policy
• Ryan Visnovec, Senior Research Associate

Washington Analysis Healthcare Team hosted a conference call with a leading UK-based strategic advisor to understand better the potential investment impacts following the announcement that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will abolish NHS England, with relevant roles and responsibilities returned to the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). Alongside this announcement, Integrated care boards (ICBs) are facing significant pressures to reduce running costs by approximately 50 percent by October. 2025. Leading industry groups, including large pharmaceutical companies, have highlighted the lack of NHS spending on branded medicines as a long-term barrier to life sciences private investment in the country.

Laura Hobbs
SVP – Healthcare Policy, Washington Analysis

Dr. Monet Stanford
SVP – Healthcare Policy, Washington Analysis

Tatiana Brown Johnson
SVP – Healthcare Policy, Washington Analysis

Ryan Visnovec
Research Assistant, Washington Analysis

Tom King
Consultant, Outside In

As we approached the March 14 funding deadline, this event provided a unique opportunity to engage with congressional staff and experts discussing key legislative developments, including Medicaid and Medicare policies, vaccine program stability, and responses to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda.

Key Topics Covered:

• Budget Reconciliation & Healthcare Funding – Navigating Medicaid/Medicare priorities
• Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) – Congressional responses and implications
• Vaccine Program Stability – Potential regulatory shifts
• Government Efficiency & Workforce Cuts – The impact of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
• Insurers & Pharmacy Benefit Managers – The evolving healthcare landscape
• Hospital & Provider Reimbursement Changes – Medicare/Medicaid updates
• 340B Drug Pricing Program – Legislative outlook

Featured Speakers Include:

• Nd Ubezonu, Floor Director, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)
• Brian Arata, Legislative Director, Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (D-PA)
• Colm Pelletier, Legislative Assistant, Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-PA)
• Vanessa Baker, Legislative Correspondent, Rep. Lori Trahan (D-MA)
• Kevin Lefeber, Legislative Assistant, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)
• Max Seltzer, Health Policy Advisor, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS)
• Audrey Trussell, Legislative Correspondent, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK)

Event Details:

 Washington, D.C. (Multiple locations)
 March 4, 2025 | 8:30 AM – 5:30 PM EST

Watch the full video and stay ahead of critical policy developments.