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Discover what’s shaping the market narrative heading into 2026. CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, CFP, projects 13.5% S&P 500 earnings growth for 2026—here’s his roadmap for navigating elevated valuations while capitalizing on Fed easing and post-election momentum.

As markets recently hit coordinated all-time highs, positioning for 2026 becomes critical. In this video, Stovall outlines how the market rebounded from early-2025 weakness and why he expects to see ongoing resilience. Topics covered explore the role of the Buffett Indicator, stretched P/E ratios, and shifting breadth, while highlighting the historical patterns that point to potential strength in the upcoming year. His analysis emphasizes the significance of the second year of a rate-cut cycle, the fourth year of the current bull market, and the strong performance trends that often follow midterm elections once uncertainty declines.

• S&P 500 earnings projected to rise ~13.5%
• S&P 500 year-end target of 7,400
• Continued support from easing monetary policy
• Improving GDP growth and moderating inflation pressures
• A potential path toward trimmed valuations as earnings strengthen

Stovall offers practical guidance on sector positioning, historical patterns in winner-vs-loser strategies, and what market signals may matter most in the months ahead. While volatility is likely to persist, Sam’s perspective suggests a continued—though more measured—path forward for U.S. equities as 2026 unfolds.

Download the slide deck here.

Amid ongoing inflationary pressures tightening household budgets, a subtle payment revolution is reshaping how Americans shop this holiday season as U.S. retail sales are projected to see minimal to moderate growth.

CFRA’s Senior Equity Analyst Caydee Blankenship and VP of Equity Research Zachary Warring reveal the shifting spending behaviors and growing influence of buy now, pay later (BNPL) options. BNPL transactions are projected to reach $20.5 billion in 2025 – a 13% annual increase – driven by tighter household budgets and the recent “fewer but pricier” gift trend. Clothing and electronics are leading the BNPL surge, with mobile-first shopping (80% of BNPL transactions) driving new consumer behavior.

Global markets are facing renewed turbulence as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, with President Trump announcing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports effective November 1, 2025, in response to Beijing’s expanded export controls on rare earth elements.

These tariffs, which now average 58%, represent historic trade barriers and have contributed to rising inflation pressures. Rare earth restrictions, critical to industries like semiconductors, auto manufacturing, and aerospace & defense, are adding supply chain risks, though CFRA remains optimistic about the semiconductors and aerospace sectors. Equity markets are experiencing stretched valuations, with the S&P 500 trading at a 41% premium to historical averages, and equity risk premiums at a 20-year low, signaling potential near-term volatility and a possible 5%-10% correction.

In his latest Macro Research report, “Liberation Groundhog Day,” Paul Beland, CFA, CFRA Global Head of Research, delivers a compelling analysis that explores:

• Global markets remain unsettled due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025.
• CFRA expects a U.S.-China trade deal by early 2026 covering trade, technology, and tariffs.
• Near-term equity market volatility is likely, but longer-term fundamentals support the ongoing bull market.
• Stretched valuations and low equity risk premiums could lead to a 5%-10% market decline if tensions persist.

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The U.S. automotive industry is at a critical turning point, with traditional automakers reclaiming dominance over smaller manufacturers and electric vehicle (EV) startups. After years of rapid EV growth and market disruption, the pendulum is swinging back toward the established automotive giants, who are now capturing a larger share of U.S. vehicle sales. In this video, CFRA SVP of Equity Research Garrett Nelson provides an in-depth look at how the top five bestselling automakers in the United States are consolidating their leadership positions, outpacing EV-only brands and newer market entrants.

Several factors are fueling this power shift in the automotive market. First, surging demand for hybrid vehicles has created a competitive advantage for legacy automakers with diversified product lines, enabling them to meet consumer interest in fuel efficiency without the higher costs and infrastructure challenges tied to full EV adoption. Second, affordability remains a major issue, with buyers favoring non-luxury automotive brands that offer accessible price points during a time of economic uncertainty. Finally, smaller EV companies are facing mounting headwinds, from scaling difficulties and supply chain constraints to regulatory shifts such as the upcoming September expiration of federal EV tax credits, which could further weaken their competitive position.

For investors and industry professionals, these automotive market trends highlight how consumer demand, pricing dynamics, and government policy are reshaping the competitive landscape. As traditional automakers strengthen their market share and smaller EV manufacturers face increasing challenges, understanding these shifts is critical to evaluating both risks and opportunities in the automotive sector.

China’s solar industry faces one of its toughest battles yet—managing chronic overcapacity. Despite Beijing’s renewed push to curb “involutionary” competition and coordinated supply reductions by manufacturers, history shows limited progress. CFRA’s latest thematic research dives into the underlying risks, structural challenges, and company-level implications across the solar value chain.

Key insights include:

• Persistent Oversupply: Despite short-term price rebounds in polysilicon and wafers, we expect historically low prices to persist, putting pressure on earnings.
• Winners & Losers: Our analysis highlights potential upside for Tongwei Co., Ltd. as supply cuts improve sentiment, while JA Solar Technology, LONGi Green Energy, and TCL Zhonghuan face continued headwinds.
• Government & Market Dynamics: Limited enforcement, local government incentives, and China’s strategic reliance on solar as part of its “new three” industries complicate capacity rationalization efforts.
• Investor Implications: Understanding which players are positioned to weather oversupply—and which remain exposed—is critical as policy signals and market sentiment evolve.

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Fill out the form to download CFRA’s complete thematic research report: China’s Solar Chain: Curbing Overcapacity Remains an Uphill Battle.

In a landscape defined by razor-thin margins, Walmart just changed the rules. Its U.S. e-commerce unit is now profitable—and not just barely. Supported by faster order densification, expanding higher-margin revenue streams like advertising and memberships, and smart capital investments in automation, Walmart is on track to see online profitability rival, and eventually surpass, in-store margins.

In this new CFRA Thematic Report, analyst Arun Sundaram explores:

• Walmart’s digital transformation and how e-commerce is set to drive 60% of total sales growth over the next five years.
• Why Amazon remains Walmart’s fiercest competitor—but also why most other retailers may not keep up.
• How Walmart’s Vizio acquisition unlocks massive advertising potential across connected TVs and online retail.
• Strategic advantages in logistics, data monetization, and fulfillment that create an uphill battle for smaller players.

The shift is clear: in a market where online grocery sales are growing at 5x the rate of in-store, the margin narrative is flipping.

See which companies are best positioned for retail’s digital profit revolution and which may be left behind.

Despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds—including tariffs, shifting consumer behavior, and fluctuating fuel costs—U.S. railroads are showing unexpected strength in 2025. According to CFRA’s latest thematic research, total carloads rose 6% in May, with 13 of the 20 largest commodity segments posting year-over-year gains—the broadest growth in nearly nine months.

Coal has emerged as the breakout story, with volumes up nearly 17% thanks to surging natural gas prices and policy changes favoring domestic energy production. Meanwhile, crushed stone, sand, and gravel shipments are rising alongside infrastructure spending and manufacturing construction—signs that reshoring trends and data center development are driving lasting demand for rail services.

The report also uncovers how leading operators—Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and CSX Corporation (CSX)—are leveraging artificial intelligence to improve operational efficiency, reduce dwell times, and expand margins. As diesel prices fall and rate cuts loom, intermodal traffic is poised for a second-half rebound, setting the stage for continued strength into 2026.

From forward-buy patterns ahead of tariffs to AI-powered routing and the regulatory tailwinds boosting coal, this exclusive research outlines the factors influencing market share, profit margins, and long-term positioning for the top U.S. rail companies.

What You Will Learn

• Which freight segments are rebounding—and which are slowing

• How the coal comeback and natural gas prices are reshaping volumes

• Why construction and reshoring trends are rail’s secret advantage

• Where UNP, NSC, and CSX differ in growth, efficiency, and margins

• How AI and lower diesel prices are boosting profitability

Download the report to explore where CFRA analysts see opportunity and why 2025 may be a pivotal year for freight rail.